Political Economy Analysis of Uganda’s electric power supply industry, and urban infrastructure sector

Uganda’s electric power supply
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Situation

The FCDO-funded Cities and Infrastructure for Growth (CIG) Program (2018-2023) was a £165 million, multi-country project intended to enhance low-carbon economic growth, job creation, and poverty reduction. In Uganda, among the CIG-funded initiatives were to improve the performance of the electric power sector and increase investment in urban transport and urban infrastructure.

In turn, the investment sought to unlock improvements in urban productivity, support inclusive economic development, and spur structural transformation. Overall, CIG Uganda was to develop a sustainable urban environment to accelerate Uganda’s economic development and make the Greater Kampala Metropolitan Area (GKMA) an even stronger engine of national prosperity and growth.

As a consortium partner in the implementation of the CIG Uganda program, ORI was responsible for delivering a Political Economy Analysis (PEA) and for designing priority interventions, with the understanding that achieving program outcomes is invariably politically complex, with success requiring a full appreciation of stakeholders’ political incentives and preferences.

Industries
Strategy, Data & Insights
Public Policy
Program Design & Business Development
Cities & Infrastructure
Electric Power & Clean Energy
Manufacturing & Consumer Goods
Engagement

As part of designing program inception interventions, ORI conducted a comprehensive PEA. This methodology uses a set of analytical tools to grasp ongoing processes of policy and regulatory change. It enhances understanding of how incentives, institutions, and ideas shape political action, private sector initiatives, and development outcomes. The PEA approach aims to identify a more realistic response that is both technically sound and politically feasible. The PEA took a “problem-solving” approach and provided a framework to encourage conceptual rigor.

In delivering the engagement, ORI:

  • Carried out extensive primary and secondary research across the transport infrastructure, electric power and renewable energy, and industrial park sectors.
  • Interviewed a wide range of stakeholders and explored the relationships between power sector departments and agencies, and the complex factors constraining the supply of quality services in the GKMA.
  • Tackled fundamental questions related to the ‘what’ and the ‘how’ of the problems and the overarching political and economic factors (the deeper ‘whys’) within the context of proposed interventions.
  • Uncovered the perceived incentives that influence behaviors that lead to the problem of poorly functioning cities and the systemic features in place that are relevant to the problem.
  • Selected the highest potential areas for CIG to intervene and advised on effective stakeholder engagement, entry points, and risk management by analyzing significant risk variables.
Outcomes

The CIG program utilized the PEA findings to:

  • Identify, design, and prioritize interventions based on their potential to benefit from the deployment of quality technical assistance to government Ministries, Departments and Agencies (MDAs) and to improve public sector capacity in urban management, power sector development and infrastructure service delivery.
  • Prioritize delivery of infrastructure projects. Priority projects were in (i) transport, including vital urban roads, bus rapid transit, and inland waterways; (ii) industrial parks modernization; (iii) power transmission and distribution improvement; and (iv) urban development, including waste management.
  • Design interventions that were climate-smart, gender and socially inclusive, and politically informed with opportunities for flexible programming.
  • Inform the results framework, the program’s theory of change, and LogFrame.
  • Identify high potential private sector and civil society stakeholders for partnerships in funding and delivering infrastructure projects.
  • Advance the Government of Uganda's vision of developing a sustainable urban environment that supports Uganda’s economic development and makes the GKMA attractive and effective as the main engine of national prosperity.